This is the new financial gold mine of 2025. RIP crypto.

What is churning?

Churning is a simple strategy for farming bonuses and rewards points. It is very popular with credit cards and bank accounts, but is relatively new for sports betting.

The basic premise is the same for all of them:

  1. Find a rewards program based on spending
  2. Find a way to "spend" money without actually spending money
  3. "Spend" as much as you can in order to amass rewards

Credit card example:

A simple example for a credit card offering 2% cash back on all purchases:

  1. Get credit card
  2. Use credit card to buy Visa gift card at face value (i.e. $100 spent gets $100 gift card)
  3. Use $100 gift card to pay off $100 credit card bill, collect $2 in cash back
  4. Repeat 2 and 3

Bad news: credit cards and online gift card sellers already know about this. In practice the strategies are more complex and aren't around for very long.

Sports betting example:

The basic sports betting version is very similar:

  1. Get GBank credit card offering 1% cash back on sportsbook deposits
  2. Deposit into multiple sportsbooks
  3. Hedge bets so that money is withdrawable
  4. Withdraw money and pay credit card bill
  5. Repeat 2-4

Unlike credit cards, sports betting online is still shiny and new, and the sportsbooks themselves also offer rewards:

  • Betting Bonuses
  • Deposit Bonuses
  • Rewards points based on total amount wagered

It is currently possible to stack all these rewards on top of each other and make over 2% each time you play through your entire bankroll. It is also possible to sustainably play through your entire bankroll everyday.

This is WAY better than whatever else you're investing in

Let's change gears for a minute and zoom out. What does getting 2% ROI everyday look like?

If you start with $10,000, then on day 1 you're up $200. If you don't reinvest, you just keep getting $200 for every $10,000 of bets you place. That means that if you treat this as a job and do it for 250 days per year, you're up $50k/year. Not too shabby.

Are you expecting a 500% return on any of your other investments this year?

What's the catch?

Ah, the catch. You have to actually place the bets. Lots of them. This is time-consuming.

How long does it actually take to bet $10,000 in a day? It depends:

  • How high are your limits? If you can bet $500 instead of $50, it goes 10x as fast.
  • When are you free to bet? Mornings, evenings, and weekends are the best times. Same with holidays.
  • How experienced are you? Once you get the hang of it, it becomes second nature. The process is very low-effort and easy to habitualize.

In practice, the best way to go about this is to slot it into your phone rot time:

  • Sitting in the bathroom
  • On the train
  • Riding in the car
  • Waiting on the air fryer
  • Rocking the baby to sleep
  • During commercials
  • Eating lunch
  • Working from home
  • Whenever you mindlessly scroll or play Pokemon Go

How Long Will This Last?

The reality is no one knows.

However, I will indulge reading the tea leaves and make an educated guess.

It's Still Brand New

Online sports betting still isn't fully legal in Texas, California, or Florida.

Those 3 states have a lot of people in them. Sportsbooks are going to want those people as customers. They will market aggressively like they have in other states. For those of you not yet in a legal online betting state, they advertise EVERYWHERE.

Signal: it will last 3+ more years at current levels

Credit Card Rewards are Still Around

...but how much you earn IRL is an order of magnitude lower. It also typically requires going to specific physical stores after they load new inventory of gift cards, whereas with betting all you need is your phone.

Signal: it will last indefinitely but 90% of the value will go away

Conclusion

Taking both factors into consideration, I'm guessing we're in a window that will last another 3-5 years, after which the rewards will decline until they're about where credit card rewards are today. Good but not quit-your-job good.

What Should You Do?

Prepare to start betting at the beginning of NFL season.

The NFL is the most popular American sport, and thus when the sportsbooks have the most marketing bonuses. These bonuses also follow a predictable weekly cadence, which is perfect for beginners who are still learning their way around sports betting.

If you're reading this during football season, prepare to start betting ASAP. The best bonuses come over the first 4 weeks of your accounts being open, so as long as there's at least 4 weeks left in NFL season, don't wait.

If it's after football season, wait and prepare.