Closing line value (CLV) measures whether your bet price was better than the final odds at game time. It's the strongest predictor of long-term betting skill.
Closing line value (CLV) is the difference between the odds you received when placing a bet and the final odds when the game starts (the "closing line"). Positive CLV means you got a better price than the market ultimately settled on.
The closing line represents the most accurate probability available for a game — all information has been priced in by game time. A bettor who consistently beats the closing line is demonstrating that they're finding value before the market corrects.
Consistently positive CLV predicts long-term profitability better than win rate alone. Short-term results are noisy; CLV is signal.
You got +130 on an outcome the market ultimately priced at +110. You captured value before the market moved. That's positive CLV.
Converted to probability:
The market "agreed" the probability was higher than 43.5% — moving toward you.
For recreational sportsbook accounts, high CLV is a liability. It signals skill, which triggers account restrictions. Hedgers should minimize their CLV footprint at recreational books by:
At market maker sportsbooks, CLV is welcomed. Sharp action improves pricing accuracy, and these books actively want CLV-positive bettors.
For the full account profiling framework, read our guide to how sportsbooks profile accounts.
This is part of our complete guide. Read the full breakdown for the complete strategy.
Read: How Sportsbooks Profile and Limit Bettors (2026) →