The Complete Guide to Parlay Hedging

Parlays come in many shapes and sizes, and there are a handful of worthwhile techniques to learn for hedging them. Typically you will only want to bet parlays using bonuses -- sportsbook give out lots of parlay bonuses, and hedging them without using bonuses isn't worth your time and effort.

Types of Parlays

Before we get into the hedging techniques, let's go over the basics.

Parlays have multiple bets (called "legs") combined together into an all-or-nothing bet. The minimum number of legs you can have in a parlay is two, and the most you will likely ever use is around 10 (the maximum required for bonuses).

Vanilla parlays consist of legs from different games. For example, betting on the Lakers and Dodgers to both win their respective games. If both teams win, your parlay wins. If anything else happens, your parlays loses.

Same-game parlays (SGPs) are parlays where all of the legs are from the same game. For example, betting on the Lakers to win and Luka Doncic to score at least 25 points is a same-game parlay since both bets are from a single game.

Same-game parlays X (or "Plus") are a combination of the two. Different sportsbooks use different terminology here, but the functionality is the same. These have a minimum of three legs, and at least two of them must be from the same game. For example, Lakers and Dodgers to both win and Luka to score at least 25 points is a 3-leg SGPx.

For the rest of this post, I'll distinguish between the three types: "parlay", "SGP", "SGPx".

How can you hedge a 2-leg Parlay?

There are three good techniques for doing this.

1. Static hedging all outcomes

Static hedging, like with arbitrage, involves hedging all of the possible outcomes at the same time. The number of outcomes for a parlay grows exponentially based on the number of legs. If you only place bets that have exactly 2 possible outcomes, a 2-leg parlay has 2^2 = 4 total outcomes you need to hedge. A 3-leg parlay has 2^3 = 8 total outcomes.

In practice, it's not worth using this technique for parlays with more than 2 legs. There are simpler ways to handle 3+ leg parlays.

2. Static hedging with only 3 bets

Another simpler option is to use a straight bet to hedge one leg:

1. Lakers & Heat to win
2. Lakers & Wizards to win
3. Celtics to win

3. Dynamic hedging

Dynamic hedging involves strategically picking your two legs so that the first game ends before the second one begins. This lets you hedge each leg individually instead of needing to account for all possible outcomes.

This main advantage of this is that you don't tie up any more of your money than necessary in hedges. The main disadvantage is it requires a precisely-timed followup instead of being done in one go.

How can you hedge a 2-leg SGP?

Now let's apply those 3 strategies to SGPs.

Static Hedging

The first two work exactly the same:

• Lakers & Luka Over 25 points
• Lakers & Luka Under 25 points
• Celtics & Luka Over 25 points
• Celtics & Luka Under 25 points

Or:

• Lakers & Luka Over 25 points
• Lakers & Luka Under 25 points
• Celtics

Dynamic Hedging

Dynamic hedging a SGP involves placing a live bet after one of the legs has hit. This is a very risky strategy that requires continual monitoring of the game.

If you choose to try this, it is best to choose one leg that is likely to hit very early in the game (such as Steph Curry to make 1+ 3-pointer) and one leg that is both available for live betting and isn't decided until the game is over (moneyline).

Live odds fluctuate more than pre-game odds, and it is possible that even after Curry hits a 3-pointer, the odds will not be favorable enough to hedge for profit. It is also possible he does not hit a 3-pointer due to injury. I do not recommend trying to dynamically hedge SGPs.

How can you hedge a 3-leg Parlay?

Static Hedging

There are 8 possible outcomes if you hedge using all 3-leg parlays:

A v. D, B v. E, C v. F

1. ABC
2. ABF
3. AEC
4. AEF
5. DBC
6. DBF
7. DEC
8. DEF

Just like with 2-leg parlays, it is possible to simplify:

• ABC
• ABF
• AEC
• AEF
• D

OR

• ABC
• ABF
• AE
• D

Dynamic Hedging

This follows the same logic of spacing out games so that you can evaluate and hedge one leg at a time.

How can you hedge a 3-leg SGP?

The static hedging is the same as 3-leg parlays. Dynamic hedging a 3-leg SGP isn't worth it.

How can you hedge a 3-leg SGPx?

The best way to hedge these is to think of the 3 legs as two separate bets: a straight bet, and a 2-leg SGP. You hedge the straight bet first, and have the option to dynamically hedge the SGP based on how the first leg goes.

The first leg of the SGPx (the straight bet) should be a large underdog to maximize the chances of it losing so you are done hedging after the first leg. The other two legs (the SGP) should be on a game that happens after the first one so you have time to hedge your remaining 2-legSGP if the first leg hits.

What is the best way to use parlay bonuses?

I recommend using the simplest method possible to hedge your bonuses as a general rule-of-thumb. That said, there are some specific scenarios that are worth addressing.

2-leg No Sweat parlays

Use dynamic hedging, and parlay two large underdogs. This makes it likely that your parlay loses after the first leg, giving you the Bonus Bet, and you don't need to wager additional cash to hedge the second leg.

2-leg No Sweat SGPs

Use 3-bet static hedging, and parlay two large underdogs for maximum leverage.

2-leg Profit Boost parlays and SGPs

Use 3-bet static hedging, and parlay two large underdogs for maximum leverage.

Use 4-bet static hedging if you are grooming accounts to be profiled as square.

3-leg No Sweat and Profit Boost Parlays

Use dynamic hedging, and make your first leg a large underdog and the following two large favorites.

You want the first leg hedge to be as large as possible since you know you are betting at favorable odds and it is mostly likely to win, and the following legs to be hedge-able with small wagers so that you minimize problems with moving odds and stake limits.

3-leg No Sweat or Profit Boost SGPs

Typically you will have several of these available at any given time.

Use two of them at a time with the 4-bet static hedging, making the parlays large underdogs:

• ABC (boosted)
• ABF (boosted)
• AE
• D

These are very beneficial for account grooming, as the 3rd bet is an unboosted parlay and the 4th bet is a large moneyline bet. Sportsbooks do not expect people to use this particular hedging strategy, as it is too low-stakes for professionals and far too complicated for squares.

Stepped-up Profit Boost Parlays

Typically these incentivize you up to a 10-leg parlay, so let's consider the 10-leg case.

These are risky, as it is impractical to hedge all 10 legs for many reasons. Here are two opposite dynamic hedging strategies to consider:

1. First 1 or 2 legs as huge underdogs, use the remaining 8 legs for leverage

The main idea here is you want your first or second leg to lose so that you wrap up your parlay with a profit early on. If your first two legs are each +1000, they combine for odds of +12000, which is a ~1% chance both hit. If you then add 8 more legs of leverage and a 100% profit boost, you can hedge these for a healthy profit... 99% of the time. How much you can win will be bottlenecked by your limits at the sportsbook(s) you're hedging at.

If you get unlucky and that 1% hits, you have lost a sizable amount hedging the first two legs, and the remaining 8 legs will be unwieldy to hedge. This means you take huge losses unless you want to frantically try to hedge the remaining legs, in which case you will only take moderate losses.

I personally do not use this strategy because the risk of huge losses isn't worth it to me. However, if you commit to playing them routinely, they are +EV and even if 1/100 misses, you would be up on the whole from the other 99 hitting.

2. First 8 legs as huge favorites, last 2 as huge underdogs

This removes the potential for huge losses, at the likely expense of your initial wager.

For this strategy, you don't hedge anything until the first 8 legs hit. Even betting 8 heavy favorites, at least one leg will miss more often than you would intuitively expect. So adjust your expectations that a lot of the time, these bets will just lose and you're mostly playing the waiting game.

When the first 8 legs do hit, ideally you have your last two legs setup to dynamically hedge one-at-a-time. The best-case here is leg 9 misses, your first hedge hits, and you're done with a big profit. If leg 9 hits, you would hedge leg 10 expecting to be about breakeven on the whole.

This is my preferred strategy, especially when the stake limits on these bonuses are low enough that the losses are inconsequential to your overall bankroll ($10 or $25).

Conclusion

These should be all of the tactics you need to hedge your parlay bonuses. Whether or not it's worth it to hedge them depends on context:

• How high are your stake limits?
• Are you grooming your accounts to be profiled as square?
• Are you available to place you dynamic hedges when you need to be?

Happy hedging!